For decades, connecting a plant to the Brazilian transmission grid worked like a queue at a registry office: first to file, first served. Decree No. 12,772 of 5 December 2025 ended that model. The first access window under the new regime already has published results, and the numbers show exactly where a developer will feel the squeeze.
In this analysis
What ended
Filing order no longer guarantees priority. Access requests now happen inside windows coordinated by the system operator, with a competitive process whenever demand for capacity exceeds what is available at the connection point. The operator publishes the schedule at least 90 days in advance, and from 2027 there are two windows per year.
The diagnosis behind the change is familiar to anyone who has looked at Brazil: the chronological queue held transmission margin hostage to projects that would never be built, while mature projects waited behind them. The new regime demands commitment. Access requests now require financial guarantees, and the filter showed immediately: when the operator validated the first requests under the new requirements, in February 2026, only about 41% of the processes at the ministry met them.
The first window in numbers
Registration for the first 2026 access window closed on 15 June 2026. On 6 July the operator published the admitted list:
- 404 requests submitted, 367 admitted.
- 20.31 GW of admitted capacity.
- 14.56 GW of generation, across 288 projects.
- 5.74 GW of consumption, across 79 consumer units.
An admission rate of 91% tells you this stage was documentary, not selective. The real funnel comes later, in the dispute for busbar capacity.
Consumption goes ahead of generation
The hardest point for a developer sits in article 10, paragraph 2 of MME Normative Ordinance No. 129/2026: absent a specific ministerial directive, remaining capacity is allocated giving priority to consumption over generation.
Add the two numbers. There are 5.74 GW of consumption that go first by rule, and 14.56 GW of generation competing among themselves for whatever is left. The priority rule stopped being an abstract paragraph: it has a scoreboard.
Amatiri reading of operator data (Jul 2026)
In practice, the data centre and the energy-intensive industry compete for the same busbar as the plant, and they go first.
What this changes in a schedule
- Development now orbits windows. Missing one means waiting for the next. Two per year from 2027 shortens the wait, but the project has to arrive ready at the opening.
- Engineering became a competitive criterion. In a contested process, an inconsistent electrical study does not delay the project. It eliminates it.
- Busbar choice matters more than project size. With 14.56 GW of generation competing for the residual, entering at a congested point is losing before starting.
- Secondary-market projects lost their asset. Access opinions issued under the transition regime cannot be revalidated. Value moved from the filing date to the quality of the technical case.
Sources: Decree No. 12,772 of 05/12/2025, article 9 onwards · MME Normative Ordinance No. 129/2026 (27/04/2026), article 10, paragraph 2 · ONS, admitted list for the 1st Access Window 2026 (06/07/2026).
Published 25/07/2026.
Will your project arrive ready for the next window? Amatiri runs the electrical studies, the access request and the qualification: what we do.
